Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in testimony in front of U.S. Congress today that there could be some bank failures because of the ongoing credit crisis. The AP reports that Bernanke did says that the "large U.S. banks will likely recover" but it is disturbing to hear he expects some small bank failures.
Bernanke, testifying before Congress, said that while the large U.S. banks will likely recover from the recent credit crisis, others could fail.
"Implying that some banks may fail stirs concerns for any investor who's familiar with financial and economic history," said Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. "Investors have been very edgy about credit market conditions and banks' financial conditions. Very edgy. And this doesn't remove that edginess."
Earlier, stocks had fallen in response to a Labor Department report that first-time unemployment claims rose last week by 19,000 to 373,000, the highest level since late January.
Scott Wren, equity strategist for A.G. Edwards & Sons, said he still believes there's less than a 50 percent chance of a recession, but that it's clear employers are cautious about hiring.
"To consistently see claims up near 400,000, that's pretty telling often-times of a recession," he said.
On the positive side Bernanke doesn't anticipate a return to the stagflation periods of the 1970s - although with gas forecast to exceed $4 a gallon not everyone is convinced. Marketwatch reports that stocks are lower today following Bernanke's words and news that last year's GDP growth was just 0.6%
The BBC reports that former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan - who blasted Bush in his book - has warned "that US economic growth has stalled and a quick recovery is not likely."
"As of right now US economic growth is at zero," he said, adding the longer it stayed this way the greater the risk of a deep recession.
Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch have both forecast that the US economy will contract in 2008.
The US Federal Reserve has said 2008 growth will be between 1.3% and 2%.
The forecast, made last week, was half a percent lower than the Fed's previous estimation.
The gloomy outlook was blamed on falling house prices, reduced bank lending, turmoil in the financial markets and higher oil prices.
If the gloomy outlook isn't enough Greenspan also thinks oil will keep rising and that the housing mark will provide more concern before it gets better.
Mr Greenspan also predicted that booming oil prices, which reached a record of more than $101 last week would keep rising and that the US housing market would see more misery before the tide turned.
Greenspan isn't alone. Just yesterday there were reports that more analysts have jumped on the recession is likely bandwagon. If we do dip into an actual recession how long will we stay there? That's the next question that needs answering.
High Gold Prices Make Oscar Statues More Expensive
The price of gold has been rising over the past several years. Bloomberg reports that the price of gold is also making those Oscar statues more expensive. They cost $500 this year compared to $400 last year according to Blooomberg.
Just as stocks seemed to be gaining some momentum oil closes at above $100 a barrel for the first time and the rally fizzles. The Dow ended up down over 10 points and the Nasdaq fell by over 15 points. There is concern that the high oil prices will translate into high gas prices during the summer driving months that will reduce consumer spending even more than the weak economy already has. In the video Reuters says OPEC mentioned a supply cut which helped to drive up oil prices.
Many U.S. Citizens Think Recession is Already Here
The dreaded R word is now being used commonly in news stories and polls. A new AP-Ipsos poll has found that 61% of U.S. citizens believe the country is already in a recession. 59% are worried about their stocks and retirement investments. Technically the economy needs to shrink for two consecutive quarters or six straight months (see recession definition) for it to count as a recession but for the people suffering in a struggling economy the technical definition doesn't really matter. Another poll found that most people think a Democrat and not a Republican would best be able to get the nation out of a recession - that might be a sign of the way the election is going to go in November. Even author Stephen King is weighing in. He's slamming the economic pundits who think a recession would help "purge the system."
Super Tuesday is Terrible Tuesday for Stock Market
The American public is busy trying to figure out what all these polls mean about who is going to be their party's candidate. Meanwhile, Super Tuesday has turned out to be Terrible Tuesday for the stock market. Today's news that service sector shrank sent stocks in the wrong direction.
The volatility that pummeled stocks in January returned with the news that the service sector shrank last month for the first time since March 2003. The report from the Institute for Supply Management wiped out the nascent optimism about the economy that had sent stocks surging higher last week.
"The report drives a nail into the coffin from investors' minds that we're in a recession," said Todd Salamone, director of trading at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "That doesn't mean stock prices in the months ahead will be lower. But when you see headline numbers like this, there tends to be a reactionary sell."
The ISM said its index of service sector activity, which accounts for about two-thirds of the economy, dropped below 50, a level that indicates contraction. Economists had expected another month of growth.
It's possible the service sector, which includes businesses ranging from restaurants to retailers to banks, could bounce back in February as the manufacturing sector did in January after its December contraction. The benefit of the Federal Reserve's two big interest rate cuts in the latter part of January could also help spur the service sector back into growth mode later this year.
Marketwatch's entry says the data today is pointing toward a recession.
Today's awful numbers:
Dow down 370.03 (2.93%) - biggest one-day point drop for Dow since it dropped 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007.
Microsoft has made a surprise $44.6 billion offer to buy Yahoo at $31 per share share.
Yahoo issued a statement saying they would consider the offer. Yahoo said that its board "will evaluate this proposal carefully and promptly, in the context of Yahoo's strategic plans, and pursue the best course of action to maximize long-term value for shareholders."
Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer said they could help Yahoo compete: "We have great respect for Yahoo, and together, we can offer an increasingly exciting set of solutions for consumers, publishers, and advertisers while becoming better positioned to compete in the online-services market,"
Yahoo recently laid off over 1,000 employees. They are a great company with numerous online products including several recently purchased social media sites like Blo.gs and del.icio.us. They also have a significant media side with original content and acquisitions like Rivals.com. It will be interesting to see whether Microsoft can convince Yahoo shareolders that this is the best option for them or whether Yahoo shareholders believe the company can do better by staying independent.
Yahoo's shares (YHOO) are up over 44% on news of the deal reports Marketwatch.
Google shares are down significantly on the news because of concerns that a Microsoft-Yahoo merger could threaten Google's search and online advertising dominance.
Microsoft views Yahoo as its best chance to thwart Google, which has leveraged its leadership in Internet search and advertising to emerge as an increasingly serious threat to the world's largest software maker's persuasive influence on how people interact with computers.
Google already controls nearly 60 percent of the U.S. search market, and has been widening its lead, despite concerted efforts by both second-place Yahoo and third-place Microsoft. By combining, Microsoft and Yahoo would have a 33 percent share of the U.S. search market, according to the latest data from comScore Media Metrix.
By joining forces, Microsoft and Yahoo also would widen their narrowing advantage over Google in providing free e-mail accounts -- a service that helps foster more loyalty with users and create more advertising opportunities.
Google shares (GOOG) are down 9% on the news in early trading today.