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May, 2008 Archives | Homepage

Consumer Confidence Index at 16-Year Low

Consumer Confidence Index GraphThe BBC reports that the Consumer Confidence Index is at a 16-year low. The index is currently at 57.2 - a fall from the 62.8 mark in April. The graph on the right from the Conference Board's release shows just how much the Index has fallen.
The Conference Board blamed the pessimism on the short-term outlook for the US economy as well as weakening business and job conditions.

The figures tell a similar story to the University of Michigan's Index, which hit a 28-year low in May.

"There is a fear the economy is in a recession or going into one and people may find their jobs in jeopardy," said David Coard from the Williams Capital Group in New York.

"When you talk to people on the street they seem to be really being squeezed at the pump and the supermarket while their income isn't keeping up."
Sadly, a turnaround in the short term is unlikely.
"Consumers' inflation expectations, fuelled by increasing prices at the pump, are now at an all-time high and are likely to rise further in the months ahead," said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

"As for the short-term outlook, the Expectations Index suggests little likelihood of a turnaround in the immediate months ahead."
Warren Buffett has also been gloomy on the economy lately saying that the recession will be "long and deep."

Posted on May 27, 2008
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Dark Pools Growing in Popularity

Reuters says anonymous trading via dark pools is growing in popularity. Pension and hedge funds are some of the biggest users of dark pools. These funds use dark pools to move large amounts of stock without revealing who they are.
When pension funds and hedge funds want to sell or buy shares...usually thousands at a time...they prefer to do it anonymously....and usually.. on an electronic trading system. These so called "dark pools" are changing the face of trading but could systems designed to make trading more efficient have the opposite effect?
Reuters says these dark pools make up about 10% of the trade. Reuters explains how they work in the video below. Wikipedia lists several of these dark pool crossing networks.



Posted on May 16, 2008
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Baby Boomers Feeling More Financial Stress

An article from U.S. News published on Yahoo's website says that many baby boomers are concerned about retirement. Even those with $1 million saved for retirement are getting more concerned. This concern is growing as the economy worsens. The article says a survey from Bell Investment Advisors and Opinion Research Corp. found that nearly 30% of 60-year-old baby boomers with investable assets of $1 million or more say they "feel more financial stress now than six months ago."
But even millionaires aren't immune to making irrational investment choices as the media endlessly report a looming recession. Some 23 percent of affluent boomers say they are planning to change their investment strategy in response to a potential recession, with 69 percent seeking more conservative investments like money market funds and bonds. Only 21 percent said they would invest more in stocks or stock mutual funds.

That could be a mistake, says Jim Bell, founder and president of Bell Investment Advisors. In many cases, these conservative investments barely keep pace with inflation, especially as interest rates on consumer products like certificates of deposit have dropped with each Federal Reserve cut in interest rates.

"Bonds and cash have the false allure of safety since their principal fluctuates less than that of equities, but equities along with commodities will better allow boomers to maintain their standard of living over decades," Bell says. "Boomers must learn to live with the volatility of equities if they want to keep their purchasing power intact."
You can find a couple retirement calculators online here and here. What is probably fueling concerns is the rising prices in basics like gasoline and food. Inflation like this can quickly overtake the pace of a slow-growing CD. Even a solid investment strategy can be thwarted by rapidly growing inflation. This is why the government needs to get a handle on it and get these fuel costs in check.

Posted on May 12, 2008
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