No one knows how bad the H1N1 swine flu outbreak will be when it returns this fall. A White House panel told the President it was feasible that the swine flu could kill 90,000 Americans before the end of the year. The panel's findings were later downplayed. The real concern for the economy will be absenteeism. The Sydney Morning Herald has an interesting article called "Swine flu looms over global economic recovery."
Faced with the unpredictable nature of flu viruses, economists say it is difficult to assess the impact of swine flu on the delicate global economic recovery taking shape amid the worst world recession since World War II.
"As the severity of A(H1N1) is so far not severe, we would not expect the magnitude of the shock to the economy to be large relative to GDP (gross domestic product)," said Simonetta Nardin, a spokeswoman at the International Monetary Fund.
"The main threat to financial stability is the risk that high levels of absenteeism could lead to breakdowns in the functioning of key financial systems," she told AFP.
If a lot of people are out from work at all at once across the country (and even the world) it will be extremely difficult for much to get done. It is hard to schedule meetings and keep appointments when people keep getting sick. Illness can also keep people from shopping, eating out at restaurants and spending money.
